As a first-time blogger here on ALDLAND, with hopes of semi-regular future contributions and an eye towards establishing a reputation for taking on the most popular burning questions of the day, my topic essentially selected itself. Obviously, I’m compelled to address the issue that is certainly on the minds even of casual fans – the media portrayal of Georgia Tech’s struggles with third and long. I know, I know, you are probably thinking that is a rather ambitious topic, but hear me out.
If you have watched any Georgia Tech games recently, or in the past 8 years, you have almost certainly heard the television commentators’ familiar refrain whenever Paul Johnson’s option offense gets off schedule. “This offense isn’t really built for this.” “This is not where Georgia Tech likes to be.” “Paul Johnson has a good offense, but here is the weakness.” Or my favorite, “they really need to be in third and manageable.”
Odds are, most of you have not watched many, or any, Georgia Tech games. And those of you who have probably haven’t noticed these comments or paid them much attention. The few of you who have noticed presumably nodded in relatively indifferent agreement, quickly moving on and largely forgetting the idea. Meaning, it is just us die hard Georgia Tech fans who care enough to object, and believe me, the twelve of us can get pretty irked. Downright inflamed at times.
If you’ve already stopped reading, I urge you to continue. I know, thus far, I have given you no reason to do so, but there is a chance I will successfully make a worthwhile point eventually. Anyway, without further ado, here are the numbers from ACC teams since Paul Johnson arrived at Georgia Tech in 2008. These are compiled from cfbstats.com, and, for a fair and accurate if barely scientific comparison, only examine the 11 teams that have been in the ACC during this entire period.
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3rd and 7 or More, All Plays
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3rd and 7 or More, Passing Only
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3rd and 10 or More, All Plays
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3rd and 10 or More, Passing Only
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Boston College
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11th – 22.73%
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11th – 25.49%
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10th – 19.00%
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11th – 22.34%
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Clemson
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4th – 30.49%
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4th – 36.46%
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5th – 22.92%
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4th – 28.41%
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Duke
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7th – 28.61%
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8th – 31.72%
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6th – 22.40%
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8th – 25.33%
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Florida State
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1st – 34.8%
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1st – 42.48%
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1st – 30.65%
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1st – 41.22%
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Georgia Tech
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2nd – 32.7%
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3rd – 36.92%
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2nd – 27.59%
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3rd – 31.84%
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Miami
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8th – 27.81%
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7th – 32.14%
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7th – 22.13%
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6th – 26.48%
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North Carolina
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6th – 29.00%
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5th – 34.34%
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11th – 18.72%
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9th – 23.37%
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NC State
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5th – 30.00%
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6th – 33.09%
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4th – 24.24%
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5th – 26.86%
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Virginia
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9th – 26.42%
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9th – 30.63%
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9th – 19.21%
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10th – 23.03%
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Virginia Tech
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3rd – 30.88%
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2nd – 37.73%
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3rd – 27.09%
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2nd – 34.62%
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Wake Forest
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10th – 25.81%
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10th – 30.44%
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8th – 21.49%
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7th – 26.40%
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As you can see, Georgia Tech is among the best in the ACC at third and long. Actually, Georgia Tech is even better than the chart shows, because in addition to being good at converting third and long, Paul Johnson’s offense is excellent at avoiding it. This is important because, as the numbers illustrate, nobody converts third and long very often. Georgia Tech faces third and seven or longer just under 8% of all plays, while the conference average is just over 10%. Georgia Tech faces third and ten yards or longer just 4.4% of all plays, while the conference average is 5.69%. Georgia Tech is first in the ACC in both categories. Continue reading →