As mentioned, this is my first season reading the Baseball Prospectus annual, and as those around me this spring have noticed, it’s full of numbers. Numbers are okay, but without analysis or interpretation, it can be a bit like reading the backs of a bunch of really comprehensive baseball cards (that also happen to include some sophisticated projections for the season ahead). There’s nothing wrong with numbers, but they don’t tend to make for very exciting reading on a site like this. Instead of asking you to widen your eyes along with me at the number of home runs Chris Davis is projected to hit this year (thirty, down from his Triple-Crown-repeat-spoiling fifty-three in 2013), I’ve tried to extract a few nuggets of information from the weeds of the raw data that will make watching baseball this season just a little bit more enjoyable. Continue reading
Monthly Archives: March 2014
ALDLAND Podcast
ALDLAND is back with a podcast packed full of tournament discussion of all shapes and sizes. We start off with some talk of the NCAA tournament’s first weekend and who we think will make it to Dallas. After that it’s on to Europe for discussion of the UEFA Champions League quarterfinal matchups. If you like tournaments and you like podcasts, then this is the place to be for the next 45 minutes.
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Download the ALDLAND podcast at our Podcasts Page or stream it right here:
ALDLAND Podcast
ALDLAND is here with a pre-tournament podcast. We might be too late to give you much advice for this year’s bracket, but there is still good information and strategies in here for next year or for when you fill out that all important NCAA hockey tournament bracket. Upsets, final four teams and whether you should wear IU pants to the bar when IU isn’t playing . . . it’s all here.
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Download the ALDLAND podcast at our Podcasts Page or stream it right here:
Amidst the glut of Pete Rose journalism, a new, false dichotomy
It is not difficult to get an interview with Pete Rose. I’m sorry to pull back the curtain on one of sportswriting’s recent tricks, but it’s true. People assume that Rose, one of sports’ all-time controversial figures, must be a tough get, but the sheer volume of articles published in recent years based on one-on-one interviews with Mr. Hustle belie that assumption. I’m reasonably confident ALDLAND could secure a sit-down interview with Rose. He seemingly wants to talk to anybody and everybody– the more he’s in the news, the more likely a public clamor for MLB to reverse course and allow him to stand for a Hall of Fame vote– and I don’t see anything wrong with that. Think what you want about Rose, but Sparky Anderson made his peace with his former player before he died, so you probably should too.
The latest entry into that glut of Rose prose is a book by Sports Illustrated’s Kostya Kennedy, Pete Rose: An American Dilemma. The March 10 issue of the magazine carries an excerpt, available online here. The magazine cover teases a central– and magazine-cover-worthy– quotation: “Rose has been banished for the incalculable damage he might have done to the foundation of the game. Steroid users are reviled for the damage they actually did.”
Again, I like Rose, I think he belongs in baseball, and I think the PED-user analogy can be illustrative. Few people love an illustrative analogy more than me, probably. But here, Kennedy takes the wind out of his own quotation’s sails, and rightly so. We cannot now be sure of the precise effect Rose’s baseball gambling had on his playing and managing. Kennedy is straightforward about this, and, just paragraphs before his money line, he set out in detail how, even if Rose only bet on his Reds, his managing decisions could have been impaired by his collateral financial interest in the outcome of his team’s games. For example, Kennedy suggests that Rose might have utilized his players to achieve short-term results in a way that impaired long-term effectiveness. A baseball season, to say nothing of a baseball career, is a marathon. Kennedy points out that Rose appeared to overuse a lefty reliever, Rob Murphy, in the 1987 and 1988 seasons. Murphy fairly denied the charge to Kennedy, but the writer still put the following tag on this section, which immediately precedes the highlighted quotation above: “There’s no indication, either through game logs or player testimony, that Rose’s betting influenced how he managed. But it could have. speculation, sure. Evidence? Not yet.”
Kennedy seems to miss the point with his “Rose has been banished for the . . .damage he might have done” line, the point he himself just finished making: that Rose’s gambling damaged the game, but we simply don’t yet have the evidence to show exactly how. The same is true of the PED users, for whom evidence has been perhaps the central issue. How many fewer home runs would Barry Bonds have hit had he not used PEDs? (He did use PEDs, right?) How many fewer hits for finger-waving Rafael Palmeiro? How many fewer strikeouts for Roger Clemens? Why pretend like the damage is any more or less obvious for one or the other?
I hope baseball allows Rose back into the game, to stand for election to the Hall of Fame (a privilege Kennedy notes Bonds and Clemens and their lot enjoy). While MLB Commissioner Bud Selig has hinted at some easing of Rose’s ban, this is an all-or-nothing issue. I’m not sure what, if anything, will tip the scales in Rose’s favor, but a false dichotomy like the one Kennedy presents doesn’t help anyone’s cause on this issue.
Thad as a March Hare March Thadness Bracket Challenge
Last year marked the firstsecond year of the ALDLAND Bracket Challenge (f/k/a the Mad as a March Hare March Madness Bracket Challenge), which was won by occasional (?) reader and listener (?) Angie Cunico. Lots of blogs might get lazy and not create another Bracket Challenge. But ALDLAND is not that kind of blog. Indeed, ALDLAND is even topping last year’s challenge by involving one Baddeus Thaddeus Lenkiewicz to make this bracket challenge bigger and better than ever. Rewards below:
3rd Place: You get a shoutout on the ALDLAND Podcast! AD will take you out for fast food if you live in the Atlanta metro area. Thad will not be involved at this level.
2nd place: You can come on the ALDLAND Podcast for a segment discussing Aussie Rules Football. AD will dog sit for you if you live in the Atlanta metro area, but not for more than like a weekend, and not if it’s a really big dog or one that chews a lot of shoes or furniture. Thad could possibly meet you at a bar and talk to you about Notre Dame if you live in Boston. He will not drive, so make sure it’s T accessible.
1st place: You will be invited on the ALDLAND Podcast to discuss a broader range of topics. You will also receive a write up on the blog. AD will pen a heartfelt letter to the person of your choice. Thad might go to a Red Sox game with you, but not with you. What I’m saying is if he’s there and you’re there, he might say hi. He also might not. I guess you might get something signed by the ALDLAND staff. I don’t know, don’t push your luck.
Last place: You HAVE to go to New York and you HAVE to spend a day with Jeremy Francis. If you live closer to Chicago than to New York, substitute Gendress for Jeremy Francis.
Complete your entry here.
The NCAA still wants you to believe its rules carry the force of law
This is a topic that probably deserves further extrapolation, but for now, just take a moment to remember that a violation of NCAA rules, to which most of us are not subject, is not the same thing as violating the law. This was the lesson of the Nevin Shapiro foul-up. That doesn’t mean that the NCAA doesn’t want you to think they can’t act with the force of law, though. [Note that lawyers receive bonus law points for triple negatives. – Ed.] The latest example came this afternoon:
That’s the NCAA’s official news account, and the tweet contains a link to the NCAA’s Sports Wagering Brochure, which is not a legal advice document from a lawyer or the government. Its text says that a variety of gambling-related acts may constitute violations of NCAA rules. That’s fine. So is eating too much pasta.
The brochure’s images and layout attempt to tell a different story, though:

Point shaving is a federal crime, and sports gambling, like just about everything else, is a regulated activity. To say that the NCAA’s brochure clearly parses people’s obligations under the law, as compared with their obligations under the NCAA’s rules is as much of an understatement as Mercer is an underdog to win the NCAA tournament. Take a look at the full brochure layout and see if you agree.
Do you think the NCAA cares that it might have caused confusion about the extent of its enforcement authority vis-a-vis state and federal law? Don’t bet on it.
Why the Michigan Wolverines have been unwatchable since at least 2008
When the University of Michigan’s athletic department swapped out its Nike gear in exchange for a lucrative contract with Adidas, the Maize ‘n’ Blue lost more than a swoosh: they lost their Maize. In fact, they sold it for something far worse:
The shift from Nike to Adidas was also a huge change. For fans, seeing a different symbol on a jersey isn’t anything special, but for athletes it’s a big adjustment. Sizes, fit, comfort, color and durability are all crucial to being able to play your sport well. With Nike, every team had figured out what they liked and disliked, and they could make small adjustments in their gear from year to year. But Adidas specializes in soccer and football gear, so things like volleyball shoes and jerseys presented new challenges.
Nike also copyrighted the color “Maize,” so Adidas actually had to make a new version of our school color, now known as “Sun” (which the volleyball team has affectionately dubbed the “highlighter” jerseys).
Terrible. I don’t love what the Spartans have done aesthetically over the last decade– it’s the overall fluctuations in approach, more than any one decision, that has become somewhat annoying– but Michigan State hasn’t done anything to make my eyeballs burn out of my face, and that recent rosy addition has been downright pleasing.
Old news, but new to me, and now you know it too.
Faux Irish Jam
Monday is St. Patrick’s Day, which means it’s about time for everyone to start pretending he or she is a typecast stereotype Irish Catholic, whatever that may or may not entail. Sometimes it works out. Many times it does not. On rare occasions, it backfires gloriously. Today’s Jam is just for fun.
San Jose wants to overturn baseball’s antitrust exemption (via Volokh Conspiracy)
Between 1913 and 1915, there was a third baseball league, the Federal League, competing with the two established organized leagues we already know, the National League and the American League. Players’ salaries skyrocketed, and the NL and AL ended up breaking up the FL by buying up some clubs and inducing others to leave the League. The sole remaining FL team, from Baltimore, sued the organized leagues and the National Commission, arguing that their action in breaking up the FL violated antitrust law.
In Federal Baseball Club of Baltimore, Inc. v. National League of Professional Baseball Clubs (1922), the Supreme Court said it didn’t violate antitrust law. Justice Holmes, writing for a unanimous Court, said this didn’t fall within antitrust law because it wasn’t interstate commerce (and the presence of interstate commerce is expressly made necessary by the text of the Sherman Antitrust Act). Of course, this is contrary to many decades of later jurisprudence: there’s no way the Supreme Court would have decided this way if the case came up today.
But the Supreme Court reaffirmed its 1922 decision in a short 7-2 per curiam in Toolson v. New York Yankees (1953), saying if baseball’s exemption was wrong, Congress should fix it.
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In Flood v. Kuhn (1972), the Supreme Court reaffirmed Federal Baseball again.
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Now San Jose wants to challenge the antitrust exemption again. San Jose claims that Major League Baseball has undermined the Oakland As’ desire to move to San Jose. Of course San Jose lost in district court, but the case is being fast-tracked to the Ninth Circuit, which . . . could hear it by May. . . . Interestingly, one of the possible grounds that the Ninth Circuit could use would be to read the baseball exemption narrowly, as limited to labor issues like the reserve clause — which is how the previous cases arose — and not applicable to issues here like restraints on relocation of teams. … Read More
(via Volokh Conspiracy)
ALDLAND Podcast
There’s not a lot going on in the sports world this week . . . OR IS THERE? Join your two favorite cohosts as we discuss the biggest piece of sports fiction to come out in, well, ever: “A Win for the Devils” by Jeremy Francis. We also discuss conference tournament season and share some of our picks to surprise in major and mid major tournaments across the country.
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Download the ALDLAND podcast at our Podcasts Page or stream it right here:
Between 1913 and 1915, there was a third baseball league, the Federal League, competing with the two established organized leagues we already know, the National League and the American League. Players’ salaries skyrocketed, and the NL and AL ended up breaking up the FL by buying up some clubs and inducing others to leave the League. The sole remaining FL team, from Baltimore, sued the organized leagues and the National Commission, arguing that their action in breaking up the FL violated antitrust law.