The 2023 MLB playoffs started two weeks ago without the Detroit Tigers, who’d been officially eliminated about a week beforehand and effectively eliminated long before that. Still, taking a look at the baseball being played this October, it’s difficult to escape the feeling that the Tigers had been a 2023 playoff team.
Infield/Catcher Willy Adames* Willi Castro Kody Clemens James McCann Isaac Paredes
Outfield Nick Castellanos Avisail Garcia Robbie Grossman J.D. Martinez
Pitcher Andrew Chafin Chad Green* Joe Jimenez Michael Lorenzen Joe Mantiply Matt Moore Erasmo Ramirez Max Scherzer Gregory Soto Julio Teheran Caleb Thielbar* Justin Verlander Justin Wilson
All of the foregoing players were rostered on 2023 MLB teams that made the playoffs and previously played for the Tigers or *one of their farm teams. Don’t let anyone tell you they can’t build a winner in Detroit. Also don’t let anyone forget that the AL East put three teams in the 2023 MLB playoffs, and those three teams posted a collective 0-7 postseason record this year.
This MLB offseason, while arguably a bit chilly by hot stove standards, did offer baseball fans a hot new hitting metric in Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus (DRC+). In the words of its creators, DRC+ is “designed to parse out more accurately . . . batters’ expected individual contributions — separate from all other player and environmental factors — to their teams’ offensive production.” (My summary of that introductory article, which was nominated for a SABR research award, can be found through here.)
Unlike traditional, rate-based hitting metrics such as batting average (BA) and on-base percentage (OBP), DRC+ is an index statistic, meaning that it’s arranged to indicate the degree to which a player is above or below average, where 100 represents average. As part of its DRC+ rollout, BP published an homage to rate statistics (link and summary available through here) that touts their simple approach to delivering contextual information.
This undoubtedly is a user advantage for metrics like DRC+, but, by placing the focus so squarely on the average reference point, the initial transition from the rate-stat world of BA/OBP/SLG to the index-stat world of DRC+ can be a little bit rough. To help smooth things, I thought it would be beneficial to illustrate the translation with a quick look at all of the hitters who had “average,” according to DRC+, seasons at the plate in 2018.
Last season, eleven batters finished with at least 275 plate appearances and DRC+ marks of 100. As their traditional slash lines illustrate, they got to that point in a variety of ways.
The ranges for these eleven on each of the traditional hitting rate statistics are:
BA: .224 – .280
OBP: .294 – .351
SLG: .359 – .484
Obviously, because of the multitude of factors DRC+ considers, including both player-performance factors and environmental factors, these rate bands only serve as rough guidelines for fans making the mental shift from the rate world of BA/OBP to DRC+ that want a little help finding their bearings. (Also keep in mind that these “average” slash-line bands will vary from year to year. For example, in 1998, there were four players with at least 275 PA who posted DRC+ marks of 100, Matt Williams, Devon White, Luis Alicea, and Robin Ventura: BA between .263 and .279; OBP between .327 and .372; and SLG between .425 and .456. For reference, Mark McGwire, .299/.470/.752, led MLB with a DRC+ of 211 that year.)
ALDLAND 