Champions League Semifinals Preview

After last Wednesday’s matches, the semifinal matchups are set and in two weeks’ time we will know the identity of the two teams that will compete for Ol’ Big Ears at Allianz Arena at the end of May.  First off, let’s see how I did on predicting the quarterfinal games.  I correctly picked 3 out of 4 games, whiffing only on the Chelsea-Benfica tilt, in which I picked Benfica to advance.  Now, on to the quarters!

Real Madrid v. Bayern Munich
This is the more compelling of the two semifinal games.  Both sides boast quality at every position on the pitch, especially in attack.  Real will look, as always, to Cristiano Ronaldo and secondarily to Karim Benzema, who has been having a stellar Champions League campaign so far.  Bayern will look to striker Mario Gomez, their leading goalscorer, as well as to midfielders Ajern Robben and Franck Ribery.  Real have an important game the Saturday between their two semifinal games, traveling to the Camp Nou to face arch-rivals Barcelona.  How much of a distraction the game against Barcelona proves to be could be a deciding factor in this fixture.  Real currently sit 4 points ahead of Barcelona in La Liga, and if that gap narrows between now and April 21, Real could be forced to field a first choice XI that could leave them tired out for the second leg against Bayern.

Prediction: Real advance, 1-2 at Bayern, 3-1 at Real.

Barcelona v. Chelsea
A whoooooooooooooooole lot of history here in this one.  Here’s a quick primer.  In 2009, Barca and Chelsea met in the Champions League semis.  After a 0-0 draw at Barcelona’s Camp Nou, Chelsea looked set to advance after Michael Essien’s 10th minute strike was followed by Barcelona defender Eric Abidal got sent off for a poor tackle.  Barca battled on, and their efforts were rewarded with an injury time goal from Andres Iniesta to tie the game at 1-1 and send Barca on to the finals on the away goals rule.

http://vimeo.com/39465964

Chelsea players and fans were pretty hot and bothered over the whole ordeal, feeling that they had been denied as many as five clear penalty shots by the referee.  Three years later, and Chelsea is looking for revenge.  Barcelona is motivated in their own way, looking to prove that they can beat Chelsea without controversy.  I fully admit I am biased, but I think this one could get pretty ugly.  Chelsea has some good players, but they do not boast the talent that is on display at the Camp Nou.  Barcelona also have the Charlie Weis Schematic Advantage™, courtesy of head man Pep Guardiola.

Prediction: Barcelona advance, 3-1 at Chelsea, 4-0 at Barcelona.

I think we are going to be seeing a Clasico final in Munich in May, with eternal rivals Barcelona and Real Madrid vying for the ultimate prize.  It would be a real “cracker of a match” as the commentators in FIFA often say.

Champions League Last Eight Preview

Last Friday marked the draw for the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League.  The initial sixteen teams in the knockout rounds became eight after last Tuesday and Wednesday’s games, and the survivors were randomly drawn against each other.  From here on out there are no redraws, and the bracket will now look like this:

Apoel Nicosia v. Real Madrid
Apoel Nicosia were surprise winners over Olympique Lyonnais in the first stage of the knockout rounds, advancing by virtue of winning the penalty shootout after the teams were tied 1-1 at the end of the second leg.  Meanwhile, Real Madrid saw off CSKA Moscow to the tune of 5-2.  Real Madrid has all the horses, and could probably beat Apoel handily without star Cristiano Ronaldo in the lineup.  Apoel is going to have to channel its inner VCU circa 2011 to advance.
Prediction: Real Madrid advances, 2-0 at Apoel, 4-0 at Real Madrid.

Marseille v. Bayern Munich
Marseille advanced over Italian side Internazionale in the first leg, while Bayern overcame a surprise 1-0 deficit in the first leg against FC Basel to triumph 7-1 when all was said and done.  Bayern has been in good form lately, notching a whopping 20 goals in its last three matches.  Marseille, meanwhile, has been languishing at the middle of the Ligue One table.
Prediction: Bayern advances in another lopsided series, 3-1 at Marseille and 3-0 at Bayern.
 
Benfica v. Chelsea
Benfica dispatched Zenit St. Petersburg in the first round by a margin of one goal.  Chelsea overcame a 3-1 first leg deficit to move on over Napoli.  Chelsea has looked better in recent games since firing manager Andre Villas-Boas.   Benfica has secured a spot near the top of the Portuguese Liga table.  Neither team is a world beater, but Benfica seem to be the better bet here given Chelsea’s recent change in direction.  Watch out for Chelsea’s Fernando Torres though, who notched a brace in his last game out, breaking a seemingly endless goalless drought.  Will his fortunes change now that he has some confidence behind him?  Probably not, but Chelsea fans can certainly hope.
Prediction: Benfica advances 2-1 at Benfica, 1-1 at Chelsea.
 
AC Milan v. Barcelona
I reacted like the famous rage guy when I found out that Barcelona had drawn AC Milan in the last eight.  Other than Real Madrid, this was probably the hardest team for Barca to face.  AC Milan drew 2-2 at Barcelona in the group stage before falling 2-3 at home to the Blaugrana.  AC Milan forward Zlatan Ibrahimovic will be looking to show up his old coach, Pep Guardiola, while Barcelona’s Lionel Messi seeks to set a record for goals scored in one Champions League campaign.  Barcelona is also looking to become the only team to win back to back Champions League titles.  Both teams have quality all over the pitch, and this promises to be the best matchup of the last eight.
Prediction: Barcelona advances 1-2 at Milan, 3-1 at Barcelona.
 
Here’s how I think the bracket will play out after the quarterfinals:

Semifinals

Barcelona over Benfica: 2-1 at Benfica, 3-0 at Barcelona.
Real Madrid over Bayern Munich: 2-3 at Bayern, 3-1 at Real Madrid.

Champions League Final

Barcelona over Real Madrid: 3-2.