Cleaning out a bookshelf I discovered a pristine copy of the Baseball Prospectus Futures Guide from 2019, a book the primary function of which is to present BP’s top 101 MLB prospects headed into the 2019 season. By the time I started reading the book (last month), the guys on that list had had five seasons in which to make good, bad, or otherwise on their cited major-league potential. How well did they– and the BP prospect team– actually perform? I now can tell you with some ease and endeavor to do so here. What follows is my present-day annotation of that 2019 list, featuring total WARP from 2019 to present and quotations from BP’s own commentary then and now (i.e., prior to the 2023 season, since the public continues to await the arrival of the 2024 BP Annual).

Without more gratuitous hindsight potshots, here’s the 2019 BP top 101 prospects list:

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.; TOR; “[B]y far the best pure bat in the minors this year . . . and the best prospect in baseball, full stop.” || 16.9 WARP; TOR; AS x 3; SS; GG; HR Derby champ; “[T]he fully formed Vladito is every bit as good as advertised.”
2. Jo Adell; LAA; “There are plenty of seasons where Adell would clock in as the top prospect in the land.” || -0.9 WARP; LAA; “Adell can’t hit the ball.”
3. Fernando Tatis Jr.; SD. || 12.7 WARP; SD; AS; SS x 2; GG; “Tatis isn’t the best player in baseball . . . but he’s still its most exciting.”
4. Eloy Jimenez; CHW; “[A] limitless bundle of offensive upside that should be directly entering the middle of the lineup by the beginning of this summer at the absolute latest.” || 7.2 WARP; CHW; SS; “That so much attention has been paid to Jiménez’s adventurously poor defense in left field over the last two years is more or less a byproduct of his bat failing to consistently reach the prodigious heights that were portended.”
5. Victor Robles; WAS; “[W]as our ‘1b’ last year behind Ronald Acuna.” || 3.5 WARP; WAS; SS; ”Break out the ‘bust’ label for the former can’t-miss prospect.”
6. Keston Hiura; MIL; “This swing is perfect.” || 0.3 WARP; MIL; “[H]as gone from star prospect to breakout candidate to post-hype sleeper to … well, whatever euphemism covers the position-less, part-time role he’s now stuck in.” Spent 2023 exclusively in the minors.
7. Forrest Whitley; HOU; “There’s ace upside, and he could help the Astros rotation as soon as this summer.” || N/A WARP; HOU; “Once the top pitching prospect in the sport, Whitley is coming off not just a lost season but a lost half-decade.” Has not debuted in the majors.
8. Royce Lewis; MIN; “[A] monster shortstop prospect . . . and a potential perennial All-Star.” || 1.5 WARP; MIN.
9. Nick Senzel; CIN; “[T]he new Ben Zobrist?” || 2.5 WARP; WAS; “[S]till playing like a fourth outfielder, not a second-overall pick.”
10. Wander Franco; TB; “[A] potential five-tool shortstop with particularly loud ones at the plate.” || 7.9 WARP; TB; AS; “[R]emains a five-tool, up-the-middle defender who should compete for end-of-year awards for, let’s say, the next 12–15 seasons.”
11. Taylor Trammell; CIN; “[P]remium tools.” || -0.4 WARP; SEA; “[T]he contact skills are simply not at a sustainable level for a big-league job.”
12. Bo Bichette; TOR; “[H]as all the pieces for a well-rounded offensive game, and he’s likely to hold substantial defensive value somewhere.” || 11.5 WARP; TOR; AS x 2; “[A] high-floor, high-ceiling franchise cornerstone.”
13. Jesus Luzardo; OAK; “[J]ust about ready for a mainstage show at the top of Oakland’s rotation.” || 4.6 WARP; MIA.
14. Kyle Tucker; HOU; “[A] potential plus hit/plus power corner outfielder who has been young for every level he’s played at and hit at every level he’s played at.” || 14.8 WARP; HOU; AS x 2; GG; SS; “[His] patience at the plate feels more appropriate to a 10-year vet.”
15. Nick Madrigal; CHW; “His contact ability might be unmatched in the minors or majors.” || 3.6 WARP; CHC.
16. Carter Kieboom; WAS; “[I]t’s more likely he ends up an above-average second baseman. The raw power is plus, and Kieboom still has some room to fill out.” || 0.0 WARP; WAS; “[Hi]s year away from baseball was unplanned—the scourge of Tommy John surgery strikes position players, too—but the Nationals have to hope he made the most of his time off following a massively disappointing start to his big-league career.”
17. Luis Urias; SD; “[C]ombines high-end bat-to-ball ability and barrel control with a hair-trigger quick bat, and that’s created a lot of offensive potential.” || 4.6 WARP; SEA; “[G]ood, and quite possibly underrated. Despite a month-long absence due to injury, he passed the post-breakout test with flying colors and seems poised to finally cross the 3-WARP threshold.”
18. Mitch Keller; PIT; “[A] very good pitching prospect about ready for the majors, a potential number two starter.” || 6.3 WARP; PIT; AS; “[I]sn’t a surefire guarantee to become the next big thing, but at long last he’s reached his destination and can pull the cord—he has an effective pitching approach.”
19. Alex Verdugo; LAD; “[B]oth high floor and high delta.” || 13.2 WARP; NYY; “[E]stablished a baseline as a useful player. But [his] ceiling seems far lower today than it did when Boston acquired him” in 2020.
20. Francisco Mejia; SD; “[His] bat . . . projects as .300 with 15-20 bombs. That’s an All-Star catcher if he can stick behind the plate.” || 0.7 WARP; FA; “A switch-hitter in title, he offers little at the plate as a lefty other than the occasional long ball. Defensively, he is still a poor receiver who does not appear comfortable blocking pitches.” Never hit above .265 in a season.
21. Alex Reyes; STL; “Two years ago we ranked [him] as the best prospect in baseball. Since then he has thrown 23 innings. His torn UCL got announced the day we published the 2017 Top 101. . . . [W]ith triple-digit heat and a plus-plus curve, he’d be a heckuva reliver.” || 0.8 WARP; FA; AS; “For the fourth time in the last six years following his 2016 debut, [he] threw fewer than five innings in the majors in 2022. The specific total was zero, as a shoulder injury stopped the follow-up to his first All-Star season.”
22. Brendan Rodgers; COL; “The story might end in something looking a lot like, well, Trevor Story.” || 5.3 WARP; COL; GG; “Trevor Story’s departure didn’t result in Rodgers manning shortstop, but he settled in just fine at second base. . . . This likely isn’t the future the Rockies envisioned when they tabbed Rodgers in the draft eight years ago, and those 70th-percentile outcomes just aren’t as interesting to cover as the extremes in either direction.”
23. Sixto Sanchez; PHI; “[A] potential ace, a potential closer, a potential surgery candidate.” || 1.0 WARP; MIA; “During the abbreviated 2020 season [he] made seven MLB starts, in which he looked much like he did in the minor leagues—an ultra-efficient strike thrower who doesn’t quite convert those strikes into strikeouts. . . . The lone concern is that [he] hasn’t pitched since 2020 and has had two shoulder surgeries since then—although he’s expected to be ready by spring training.” To date, the thirty-nine innings Sánchez pitched in 2020 comprise his entire major-league career.
24. Michael Kopech; CHW. || 1.7 WARP; CHW.
25. Brent Honeywell; TB; “[R]etains top-of-the-rotation potential.” || 0.7 WARP; FA; “Finishing the season healthy is about as big a win as we can hope for . . . . Yet another elbow injury slowed his development and wrecked his control, but there remains hope that the screwball artist could find himself in a relief role in 2023.”
26. Dylan Cease; CHW. || 8.0 WARP; CHW; ” It’s difficult to comprehend how a pitcher can be as dominant as he was in 2022 while also leading the majors in walks, but he’s a case study.”
27. Dustin May; LAD; “[Y]ou never comp Noah Syndergaard, but [his profile] sure sounds like a Noah Syndergaard starter kit.” || 3.0 WARP; LAD; “Durability could be something to monitor from here on out, as his MLB career high in innings is 56.” Threw 191.2 innings across five seasons as a starter.
28. MacKenzie Gore; SD; “[H]as one of the best curves in the minors.” || 1.0 WARP; WAS; “[I]s the poster boy for nonlinear development.”
29. Ian Anderson; ATL; “[Y]ou don’t have to project too much to see Anderson as a number two starter in reasonably short order.” || 2.9 WARP; ATL; “[Hi]s changeup became his only reliable pitch, which is not what you want to see.”
30. Austin Riley; ATL; “There’s still too much swing-and-miss . . . but he’s consistently shown the ability to hit MiLB pitching. He’s good enough defensively at third base now that he deserves a shot to stick there.” || 13.0 WARP; ATL; AS x 2; SS x 2; “[His] dropoff at third base may be a tiny bit concerning, but it’s hard to focus on that when he’s hitting at the level he has for the past couple of years. Riley has developed into an incredibly tough competitor at the plate.” Led NL in total bases in 2022.
31. Keibert Ruiz; LAD; “The offensive tools may only play to average in the end, but even that would make him one of the five or so best hitting catcheres in the game, and he could be a plus defender behind the plate.” || 4.9 WARP; WAS; “His 86.3% contact rate was second-best in MLB among catchers (minimum 100 PA). His DRC+ may seem pedestrian, but it was among the top quartile for his position.”
32. Jesus Sanchez; TB; “If it all comes together there’s All-Star potential in the bat.” || 1.9 WARP; MIA; “He already struggles with putting the ball into play, so [he] can’t afford not to make the most of his batted balls—especially given that he doesn’t add much in the way of baserunning or fielding.”
33. Brusdar Graterol; MIN; “The control and command might never be plus . . . but there’s front-of-the-rotation upside.” || 3.7 WARP; LAD; “Just as he demonstrates that high velocity doesn’t always convert into whiffs, Graterol is also proof that succeeding without strikeouts is no hoax.”
34. Nolan Gorman; STL; “You hope with time and reps he develops into . . . well, Austin Riley.” || 2.0 WARP; STL; “As a rookie, he showed a swing seemingly built in a lab to get absolutely every ounce of his plus-plus power into games.”
35. Jonathan India; CIN. || 6.5 WARP; CIN; ROY.
36. Casey Mize; DET; “[A] polished craftsman already showing three above-average pitches, all flashing a shot for plus or more. There are more red flags than you’d like for a polished college starter– we’re concerned about a history of elbow injuries, and he throws with some effort.” || 0.5 WARP; DET; ” It’s still not clear that Mize will be a significant member of the next good Tigers team.”
37. Chris Paddack; SD; “[H]as been comically dominant everywhere he’s ever pitched . . . he just hasn’t shown the ability to stay on the mound enough.” || 5.6 WARP; MIN; “A second Tommy John surgery does not automatically signal the end of a career.” Threw 27.1 innings across seven appearances in the past two seasons.
38. Andres Gimenez; NYM; “[H]e’s closer to the majors than you might think, and he’s got a chance to be an impact player instead of just a steady hand.” || 6.4 WARP; CLE; AS; GG x 2; “[E]ven if his offense slips down a peg, his plus glove in the middle of the diamond makes him a long-term building block.”
39. Alex Kirilloff; MIN. || 0.3 WARP; MIN; “There’s a long way between here and the plus offensive contributor he was supposed to be. Being able to swing pain-free would be a great start.”
40. Peter Alonso; NYM. || 16.9 WARP; NYM; ROY; AS x 3; HR Derby Champ x 2; “[T]here is no longer any doubt that [he] is a franchise player.”
41. Joey Bart; SF; “If all goes well, the Giants may have decades straight of high-end catching production, because Bart should be ready at right about the same time Buster Posey is going to be shedding the tools of ignorance.” || 0.1 WARP; SF. Plate appearances by season since his 2020 debut, respectively: 111; 6; 291; 95.
42. Brendan McKay; TB; “[P]erhaps the single trickiest prospect to rank this year. . . . A third starter/average first baseman outcome is still on the table.” || 0.2 WARP; TB; “Former top prospect and draft pick Brendan McKay has thrown just 28 professional innings since 2019. He won’t throw any in 2023 either after undergoing Tommy John surgery last September, leading the Rays to release him in November amid a big-time roster crunch.” Appeared in the majors– 11 PA and 49 IP– only in 2019. Resigned with TB as a FA after being released.
43. Triston McKenzie; CLE; “[H]e might just be ‘skinny’ and the velocity still hasn’t really jumped.” || 3.4 WARP; CLE; Can we now all finally stop stressing and obsessing over his willowy build? Dr. Sticks finally overcame the inconsistency that had hitherto defined his major-league career and[, in 2022,] put together the brilliant season we’ve long known he’s capable of, making 30 starts and ranking among the top 20 MLB starters in WARP, DRA, WHIP, strikeout-to-walk ratio, whiff percentage, chase rate, savvy, resilience, charisma and enthusiasm.” Pitched just sixteen innings in 2023.
44. Yusniel Diaz; BAL; “[H]as a broad set of baseball skills, everything is solid across the board. He’s fine in right field, and could stand in center for you. He’s likely to be an above-average hitter with above-average pop.” || 0.0 WARP; SF; “[T]he prospect embodiment of development hell. . . . [A]n unsettling combination of wasted development time and a long-awaited Triple-A showcase which horrified rather than thrilled. . . . [I]t’s still not clear he can muster the power to earn a major-league premiere.” One career majors PA (strikeout], in 2022, spent all of 2023 in the minors.
45. Luis Robert; CHW; “[A]n impressive upside profile, with potential to hit for average, hit for power, and run while playing a cromulent center field. Yet he’s only shown what we think is his true talent in short bursts.” || 8.4 WARP; CHW; AS; GG; SS; “While he missed a significant chunk of time for the second straight season [in 2022], what was more jarring—on the surface—is that he didn’t exactly dominate when healthy enough to play. Actually, the term ‘healthy enough to play’ isn’t exactly fair, because [he] frequently played when he didn’t seem healthy enough to do so.” Had his career-best season (3.0 WARP; 145 games) in 2023.
46. Josh James; HOU; “[W]ill likely be an incredible force for as long as he can stay healthy.” || 1.5 WARP; FA; “Hip. Hamstring. Back. Lat. Arm. In some respects it’s impressive that [he] has pitched much at all since his 2019 breakout, given the parts of his body that have let him down. The performance has understandably suffered, to the point that Houston non-tendered him.” Granted free agency after the 2022 season and appears not to have pitched professionally since then.
47. Leody Taveras; TX; “[P]lus center field tools across the board.” || 3.7 WARP; TX; “[S]till looks like a future Gold Glove candidate in center.”
48. Bubba Thompson; TX; “[F]ive tool upside . . . with a wide range of outcomes below that.” || 0.2 WARP; NYY; “He wasn’t very good at the plate, with a 37th percentile max exit velocity undermining a solid batting average. Despite owning the second-best sprint speed in the majors, he wasn’t particularly good in the field, either.”
49. Yordan Alvarez; HOU; “[C]lose to major-league-ready . . . with a plus hit/ plus power projection.” || 17.6 WARP; HOU; ROY; AS x 2; SS; “If there’s a way to beat him, no one has found it yet. He inflicts pain on lefties and righties with equal disdain.”
50. Justus Sheffield; SEA. || 0.0 WARP; FA; “The stuff seems to have stalled out below the standard to be a useful starter, and maybe the last hope is to see what, if anything, can be tweaked to make him effective in relief.” Granted free agency following the 2023 season.
51. Ryan Mountcastle; BAL; “If the light goes on at the plate and he can play reasonable defense somewhere, he’ll be a star. He’ll still be pretty good if one or the other happens. If neither occurs . . . well, he could be C.J. Cron.” || 5.8 WARP; BAL; “[He] can mash.”
52. Seuly Matias; KC; “You’re here for the power [and he] just needs to get enough of it into games to be a middle-of-the-order monster.” || N/A WARP; FA; “As bad as it looks, it was even worse.” No appearances at the major-league level; last affiliated appearance was in 2022 with KC’s Double-A team.
53. Mike Soroka; ATL; “All the elements re here for a top-five pitching prospect in baseball, but if he had been healthy, we wouldn’t be ranking him. . . . The profile was always ‘safe number three’ and it’s not safe anymore.” || 3.5 WARP; ATL; AS; “Assuming the injury nightmare has finally ended, [2023] should be the light at the end of a dark, dark tunnel of lost seasons.” His 32.1 IP in 2023 were his first in the majors since his All-Star season in 2019.
54. Nate Pearson; TOR; “[A]n ace starter’s arsenal and no idea about what role– if any– he can stay healthy in.” || 0.4 WARP; TOR; “[E]ndured a lengthy bout of mononucleosis and then, during his rehab assignment, a lat strain that sidelined him another 11 weeks. In the end, he threw just over a dozen innings [in 2022], all in the minors and all in relief. That seems to be the role for which the 26-year-old is best suited at this point.” Threw 42.2 relief innings for the Blue Jays in 2023.
55. Ke’Bryan Hayes; PIT; “[E]ven if the power doesn’t come, he’s a plus defender at the hot corner . . . . [A] nice everyday player.” || 4.6 WARP; PIT; GG; “If there is another gear lurking, he could very well be a living, breathing cheat code at the hot corner. But even if the power never surfaces, Hayes provides enough on-field and off-field value to be a franchise cornerstone.”
56. Griffin Canning; LAA; “Durability and health concerns may yet limit him to a mid-rotation outcome, but he does have better stuff than the usual mid-rotation starting profile.” || 3.1 WARP; LAA; “Canning, whose rough 2021 season was cut short by a stress fracture in his lower back, ran into setbacks in both March and June, scuttling his 2022 as well.” Returned as a starter in 2023, throwing 127 innings of average performance.
57. Adonis Medina; PHI; “[A]n exemplary example of the ‘number three starter or late-inning reliever’ projection.” || 0.3 WARP; FA; “[A]n up-and-down middle reliever.” Released after the 2022 season. Started twelve games for the KBO’s KIA Tigers in 2023.
58. Kyle Wright; ATL; “[A] polished, healthy, advanced college arm, and a pretty good bet to be headed for the middle of a rotation. . . . [E]verything is fine. It’s just not great.” || 4.4 WARP; KC; “[F]inally put it together [in 2022] for a full season in a big-league rotation.” Threw only 31 innings in 2023 and was traded after the season for a quad-A reliever.
59. Will Smith; LAD; “[I]f anything this ranking might be a bit low for a more traditional starting catcher with 20-home-run pop.” || 13.5 WARP; LAD; AS; “[I]sn’t the best catcher in MLB at any given skill. . . . However, he ranges from “pretty good” to “top two or three” in each category.”
60. Bryse Wilson; ATL; “[N]ot all that different from Soroka and Wright.” || 0.2 WARP; MIL. Exceeded 100 IP for the first time in 2022, only to be used exclusively as a reliever in 2023.
61. Khalil Lee; KC; “[T]he most nebulous prospect on the [list].” || -0.2 WARP; FA; “Squint and hope, and you can see a fourth outfielder.” Released during the 2023 season following a domestic-violence accusation and arrest and subsequently signed with the unaffiliated Atlantic League’s Southern Maryland Blue Crabs.
62. Cristian Pache; ATL; “Might be the best defensive center fielder in the minors . . . . The superlatives don’t flow quite as easily during his at-bats though.” || -0.7 WARP; PHI; “[H]ad (and has) the physical tools and prospect pedigree to emerge as an elite defensive center fielder and everyday contributor. But there’s no way to sugarcoat it: [he] was an absolute disaster at the plate in 2022.”
63. Jarred Kelenic; SEA; “[A] very good prospect [who] projects to have a broad base of offensive and defensive value, but may lack a carrying tool.” || -0.4 WARP; ATL; “[T]he remaining uncertainty is now focused down to one hard question: Can he hit anything that isn’t a fastball? [T]he answer is an emphatic ‘no.’”
64. Jonathan Loaisiga; NYY; “[M]ay be tipping a bullpen future. If he can somehow stay in the rotation, it’d be premium upside, with a fastball and breaking ball that both flash plus-plus and an average changeup that might get a notch higher.” || 3.6 WARP; NYY; “The Yankees view him as one of the linchpins of their bullpen, and his performance down the stretch and in the playoffs marked a return to the form they believe he can sustain.” Pitched 17.2 innings across seventeen games in 2023, missing time due to elbow problems.
65. Drew Waters; ATL; “[P]otential five-tool center fielder.” || 0.0 WARP; KC; “[A] former top prospect who’d stalled out offensively in Triple-A. . . . He’ll be in the outfield mix for the Royals [in 2023].” Was decidedly below-average at the plate in a part-time role in 2023.
66. Estevan Florial; NYY; “The tools are loud enough, and the ceiling remains high enough . . . but the clock is ticking.” || 0.0 WARP; CLE; “[H]e quite simply hasn’t shown the ability to make the most of his array of tantalizing tools.” His seventy-one PA in 2023 marked a career high.
67. MJ Melendez; KC; “[A] strong two-way catching prospect.” || 2.0 WARP; KC; “Homers solve and absolve everything in today’s environment, and they’re the main aspect of the rookie catcher/outfielder’s game that will levitate his status.”
68. Jahmai Jones; LAA; “[P]rojects for above-average hit and average power.” || -0.1 WARP; MIL; “The good news? The only way is up.” Spent all of 2022 in the minors and had just eleven major-league PAs in 2023
69. Jazz Chisholm; AZ; “[A] potential plus-or-better shortstop.” || 2.5 WARP; MIA; AS; “[I]t’s equally believable that he’s fashioned himself into something resembling a star—and arguably the best player on the Marlins.”
70. Touki Toussaint; ATL; “[R]aw potential now close to actualizing as a good pitcher.” || 1.3 WARP; CHW; “[S]imply cannot throw strikes.”
71. Victor Victor Mesa; MIA; “[H]asn’t played baseball in a while. . . . [F]requently compared . . . to . . . Albert Almora.” || N/A WARP; MIA; “[R]epeating levels of the minors.” Yet to make his MLB debut and left his Miami Triple-A team midseason last year following a disagreement with his coaches.
72. Adrian Morejon; SD; “[D]oesn’t have to improve all that much . . . to be a mid-rotation starter.” || 0.8 WARP; SD; “[A] replacement-level [pitcher].” Nine career starts and seventy-five total innings pitched across five major-league seasons. Made one appearance in the majors in 2023.
73. Sandy Alcantara; MIA; “[M]ight end up in the bullpen eventually.” || 15.5 WARP; MIA; Cy Young; AS x 2; “[C]ompiled more frames [in 2022] than any starting pitcher since David Price in 2016. He’s a bona fide workhorse.”
74. Luis Patino; SD; “[B]uilding blocks for a future good rotation piece.” || -0.3 WARP; SD; “He hasn’t been good yet, but has too much talent to write off.”
75. Hunter Greene; CIN; “[A] special arm talent, if a bit raw around the edges.” || 3.2 WARP; CIN; “[As a] rookie led his team in all the major categories despite missing over a month with a shoulder strain.”
76. Dane Dunning; CHW; “A potential third starter, frame sturdy and strong.” || 4.3 WARP; TX; “[S]ettled in as the archetypal back-end starter.”
77. A.J. Puk; OAK; “[I]f all goes well he might be a MLB candidate again later in the season.” || 2.8 WARP; MIA; “[H]is ultimate role will be that of a late-inning fireman. No longer a potential ace.”
78. Julio Pablo Martinez; TX; “[A] good bet to be an above-average defender in center and gets more pop than you’d expect out of his five-foot-nine frame.” || 0.0 WARP; TX. Debuted in 2023, making forty-four below-average plate appearances.
79. Lucius Fox; TB; “[L]imited gap power, but it’s a very playable athleticism and defense profile even if the bat never begins to shine.” || 0.0 WARP; FA; “[T]he last player from the 2017 Futures Game to reach the majors.” MLB experience limited to ten games in 2022; released following the 2023 season.
80. J.B. Bukauskas; HOU. || 0.2 WARP; MIL; “[G]ood when healthy.” Debuted briefly in 2021, spent all of 2022 in the minors, and returned to the majors in 2023, when he pitched seven innings across six games for two teams.
81. Luis Garcia; WAS; “[H]as a shot to be in the majors before he turns 20 in May 2020.” || 2.6 WARP; WAS; “[C]an’t remain up the middle much longer. Thanks to subpar arm strength . . . his future home might be first base.” Debuted on August 14, 2020.
82. Travis Swaggerty; PIT; “[A] fine prospect, a college center fielder with average-to-above tools across the board and a good approach at the plate. He’s unlikely to be a franchise-altering piece.” || -0.1 WARP; LAD; “[W]hile it’s a little too early to deem the outfield prospect a complete bust, it is clear that he’s far more likely to be a complementary player than a superstar.” Total MLB experience: nine plate appearances in five games for Pittsburgh in 2022. He started 2023 in the Pirates’ minor-league system only to be released in the middle of that season.
83. Anderson Tejeda; TX; “[N]ot a stone cold lock to stick at shortstop, but he has a good shot, and even if he moves off it would probably be to another premium position.” || -0.2 WARP; FA; “[T]here’s just a whole lot more rough than previously thought.” Total MLB experience: twenty-eight games for Texas between 2020 and 2021 and has been a free agent with no affiliated experience since then.
84. Logan Allen; SD; “[A] very good prospect.” || -0.5 WARP; AZ; “It’s hard to overstate how bad [he] has been since his debut.”
85. Michel Baez; SD; “[F]ar more likely to be a reliever than [Logan] Allen, but also more likely to have serious impact if he sticks in the rotation.” || 0.2 WARP; FA; “After missing all of 2021 post-Tommy John surgery, [he] pitched at four different levels in 2022.” He spent all (thirty-two games, including one start) of 2023 in the minors before the Padres released him in the offseason.
86. Nico Hoerner; CHC; “He takes a healthy rip and has a history of hitting well with wood bats.” || 6.2 WARP; CHC; GG; “[O]nce you get that “injury-prone” label slapped on you, it’s hard to rip it off.”
87. Heliot Ramos; SF; “[P]lus potential in the bat.” || -0.2 WARP; SF; “[L]it up the hitter-friendly California League as a 19-year-old, but has never recaptured that starshine.”
88. Shane Baz; TB; “[A] high upside arm.” || 0.6 WARP; TB; “He’ll retain his elite upside even after another surgical procedure, but will not pitch a significant inning for the Rays in 2023.” Last professional experience: six starts for the Rays in 2022.
89. Danny Jansen; TOR; “[V]ery likely good enough to remain at catcher.” || 7.9 WARP; TOR; “[A] catcher with a league-average bat and a plus glove.” No mention of his skate times.
90. Jon Duplantier; AZ; “The inflection point for the third starter-or-short reliever game is getting close here.” || 0.3 WARP; FA; “[T]he injury concerns that pushed him to the 89th overall pick have been a steady presence.” Total MLB experience: 49.2 innings pitched in seven games in the 2019 and 2021 seasons. Spent 2022-23 going down the minors ladder before a midseason release.
91. Oneil Cruz; PIT; “[M]onster raw power and an arm to match it. . . . There’s huge upside here.” || 0.9 WARP; PIT; “He’s on the cusp of superstardom, and even if he doesn’t get there this year you can see imminent greatness every time this seemingly mythical being graces the diamond.” A fractured ankle in April cost him the rest of the 2023 season.
92. DL Hall; BAL; “[C]ould be a pretty good third starter or late inning reliever in a few years. He’s gotten comps to Scott Kazmir.” || 0.6 WARP; MIL; “In an era when relievers are more valuable than ever, [his transition to relief] shouldn’t be looked at as a failure of development as much as a player finding his niche.”
93. Luis Oviedo; CLE; “[H]e’s not all that different from the third starter reports that dot the second half of this list.” || 0.0 WARP; FA; “[T]hrew reasonably hard but usually had no idea where it was going.” Total MLB experience: 29.2 innings pitched in twenty-two games in 2021. Spent all of 2022-23 in the minors before being granted free agency after the 2023 season.
94. Brandon Marsh; LAA; “[L]ikely ends up in right field long term, where his plus arm will be an asset.” || 0.4 WARP; PHI; “While he has excellent footspeed, you wouldn’t necessarily know it from his defensive range in center, and his arm is nothing spectacular.”
95. Sean Murphy; OAK; “[A] prototypical good catching prospect.” || 11.9 WARP; ATL; AS; GG; “A great defender with a dynamite arm, [his] offensive abilities are also well-above average.”
96. Vidal Brujan; TB; “[A] plus-plus runner and passable, if still a bit raw, at the keystone.” || 0.2 WARP; MIA; “Despite his reputation as a contact hitter, he struggled mightily at the plate in the bigs.”
97. Calvin Mitchell; PIT; “[W]e really like the bat.” || 0.0 WARP; SD; “[His] rookie year . . . was not good.” DFA’d in his second season, 2023, appearing in just two games for the Pirates.
98. Garrett Hampson; COL; “[A] prototypical dirt dog.” || 1.9 WARP; KC; “The former top prospect simply doesn’t make enough quality contact [and] brings nothing to the table save prospect pedigree and plus-plus speed.” Granted free agency after the 2022 and 2023 seasons and signed new MLB deals relatively quickly both times.
99. Jordyn Adams; LAA; “Premium athleticism can play in more facets of the game than just straight-line speed on the bases or in the outfield– though [he] certainly doesn’t lack for either.” || -0.3 WARP; LAA; “[C]ut his strikeout rate more than 15 percentage points and received a midsummer [2022] promotion to Double-A.” Made his majors debut in August of 2023 and stunk it up (-31 OPS+) in forty plate appearances across seventeen games.
100. Kristian Robinson; AZ; “He’s a long, long way from the majors, but the potential here is unlimited.” || N/A WARP; AZ; “[A]rrested in [the Bahamas in] April of 2020 on the charge of assaulting an officer and ultimately sentenced to 18 months of probation . . . . Acquiring a work visa to continue playing stateside with the Diamondbacks is . . . implausible.” Has yet to debut in the majors.
101. Kyler Murray; OAK; “[H]as five-tool athleticism but is unusually raw for a college outfielder because of lack of reps. The outside shot that he’s this generation’s Bo Jackson or Deion Sanders makes him one of the most interesting athletes in the world right now. The downside risk is that he could be this generation’s Chad Hutchinson or Drew Henson and never reach pro excellence on either side.” || N/A WARP; FA?’ “He was a better prospect on the gridiron, and that seems to be where his heart lies.”

Maybe some of these guys just need more time and, if you’re still reading, it seems like you’ve got it. Check back next year.